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Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6''' major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. AndrewTalk To Me 19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : I predict '''19 depressions, 18 '''named storms, '''11 hurricanes, and 4''' majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why?rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC) IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Isis retired Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.) rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC) :That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC) ::It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC) Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.--Isaac829 01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC) : The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. ''Ryan1000'' 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC) :::NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC) :::This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001 leeboy100My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC) August Aoi:GFS CPac storm Aoi:GFS CPac storm GFS is showing an small hurricane or TS by its end of the 12z run. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 21:47, July 29, 2015 (UTC) :Currently near 0%. All models agree something will at least try to form. Less support now though. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 11:38, July 30, 2015 (UTC)::10 ::10%. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 20:32, July 31, 2015 (UTC) :::(Edit conflict) This AOI is moving westward at some 10 mph per the CPHC. Due to unfavorable upper-level winds and disorganization, I do not expect a TC from this. Chances of formation are now '''near 0% for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 21:46, August 2, 2015 (UTC) ::::This AOI has been dropped off the CPHC TWO. AndrewTalk To Me 23:30, August 3, 2015 (UTC) 10E.HILDA Aoi:GFS storm #2 GFS has this becoming a TS by day 13. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC) :After dropping this for a few runs, 12z GFS today brought this to a hurricane in 9 days. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 18:41, July 26, 2015 (UTC) 92E.INVEST 10/50. Got some banding already and two very nice outflow channels. And is fairly well-organized and is in very favorable conditions for 3 days. If convection persists, this can become a depression within 24 hours. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC) :The NHC says conditions around 92E may result in TC formation later this week, but it already looks like a tropical depression IMO. I'm not sure if Guillermo is going to have any (indirect) impacts on the invest, but I think the latter has a decent chance at becoming a hurricane, if not a major. Chances of formation are now '''30%' for the next two days and 80% for the next five. AndrewTalk To Me 23:30, August 3, 2015 (UTC) ::92E has gained a lot of organization in the past six hours, and I expect a tropical depression within the next few days. Chances of formation for the next two days have risen to 50%, which no change in the five-day percentages. AndrewTalk To Me 00:53, August 4, 2015 (UTC) ::I am not too excited about this one doing much. Dry air is lurking and the global models aren't too bullish. With the way thing have been going lately, another weak TS is likely, if it develops of course. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 06:15, August 4, 2015 (UTC) ::It's now 60/80! I see this potentially becoming Hilda, but since it is very likely to develop at this point, I guess it'll only be a weak to moderate TS. I still hope this system tries its hardest though. Better a strong TS/minimal hurricane than another weakling fail like Felicia. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 00:04, August 5, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Hilda now TS. it going to follow Guillermo's track. it has hurricane in 5-days the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 16:53, August 6, 2015 (UTC) :Still a somewhat elongated system and may be attached ITCZ. Dry air looks to be not too favorable after 2-3 days. The NHC's peak intensity of 65 knots could be too high, but if it organizes quickly, it might become a hurricane before then. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 17:44, August 6, 2015 (UTC) ::ATCF up to 45 knts, but with microwave imagery, a case could be made for 50 to 55 knots. Small ITCZ storms tend to have lots of ups and downs. This is likely an "up". But I will admit this has a good shot at becoming a solid Cat 1. Stronger still isn't something I'd bet one due to dry air, but if it can developed a structure that blocks out dry air well like what we've seen storms do furthe east in recent years, I guess a Cat 2/3 is possible. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 19:22, August 6, 2015 (UTC) :::Hoping this does become a hurricane because ''Hilda currently stands as the only EPAC TC name to be used at least 6 times without ever reaching hurricane strength. Latest advisory has Hilda's intensity up to 50 kts/1001 mbar, with a forecast peak of 75 kts. Fingers crossed... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:42, August 6, 2015 (UTC) :::::I actually hadn't realized that...before I thought Erick was the only one, though he did finally make it to a hurricane two years ago, looks like it's Hilda's turn (though Hilda was a hurricane in the Atlantic a few times before 1979, retired in '64). In the Atlantic, Beryl and Ana are the only storms to be used every time since 1979 and never reach hurricane strength, excluding Ana's CPac incarnation last year. Ryan1000 20:57, August 6, 2015 (UTC) ::::we can use 2009's Carlos as an example. it formed in the ITCZ and became a hurricane. also it has some really nice-looking banding features in satellite imagery. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 01:43, August 7, 2015 (UTC) ::::::I meant by the time Erick was coming around in 2013, that was also the case with Bud and Ernesto back in 2006 (EPac and ATL respectively), but either way it looks like Hilda is going to have her first shot at being a hurricane now too. Ryan1000 02:20, August 7, 2015 (UTC) :::::::Hilda is still at 50 kts according to ATCF. Sigh... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:55, August 7, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::I still hope we see a hurricane from this! C'mon, Hilda, you've got this! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:47, August 7, 2015 (UTC) Hurricane Hilda Congratulations, Hilda! After 36 years of failing, you finally did it! 80 mph and 984 mbars as of the latest advisory. And like Guillermo, it's expected to pass north of Hawaii and not hit the islands. Ryan1000 22:09, August 7, 2015 (UTC) :Yes, YES!!!! Forecast peak of 85 kts as of now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:26, August 7, 2015 (UTC) :Well, Hilda finally became a hurricane after 36 years, but the bad news is Soudelor is going to make landfall in the next few hours, I won't be able to sleep easy knowing what the people in Taiwan have to go through, but at least Hilda became a hurricane. leeboy100My Talk! 22:46, August 7, 2015 (UTC) ::This has bombed out. It's probs around 95 knots now, as very cold cloud tops have developed around a rapidly clearing eye. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:40, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::as YE is saying. Hilda is possibly a category 3 or even 4 now. the cloud tops are become even more colder than the last advisory. so we might a an special advisory asap. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 01:02, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::::Yeah, this thing is going to be taking off very soon, it could even have a shot at cat 5 if it RI's quickly enough. But for a storm with a circulation this small, that's not too surprising, and it'll weaken just as fast eventually. 'Ryan1000' 02:49, August 8, 2015 (UTC) up to a C2!. has major in the crosshairs and the RI that's undergoing might evolve to a EI if the conditions are good. pretty rare for an ITCZ-born storm. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 03:44, August 8, 2015 (UTC) : It's not unheard of for small storms to explode here before, but they don't last long at peak intensity when they do so. Hilda should be a cat 3 soon, and could be a 4 afterwards if favorable conditions persist. 'Ryan1000' 11:41, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::Just a hair below MH strength per ATCF: EP, 10, 2015080812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1416W, '''95, 969, HU,' 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 10, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, Come on Hilda, become a major! You got this! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:04, August 8, 2015 (UTC) :Wow. Hilda made me eat my words. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] ::Likely around 100 knots. CPHC is just dumb. Eye has been warming, become more cloud-free, and more circular, and the cloud tops are quite cold still. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 14:26, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::Now a Category 1, forecasting to head towardsHawaii on Thursday. Hurricane Cardozo2 23:49, August 11, 2015 (UTC) Major Hurricane Hilda '''YES!!!' 100 kts/967 mbar per CPHC. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:53, August 8, 2015 (UTC) :Likely around 115 knts now. Very impressive and eye is still warming. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 17:45, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::Based on the CPHC's wording, I was a little surprised to see Hilda become a major hurricane. But they just updated their website, and some of you may not believe this - '''120 knots (140 mph)/946 mbar (hPa; 27.94 inHg)'! Dolores is being challenged for her bronze intensity position. No new advisory or discussion yet, but I am surprised at how far Hilda has come. AndrewTalk To Me 20:45, August 8, 2015 (UTC) :::120 is supported by sat estimates. FTR, Andres is still the strongest storm of the year at 130 knots/938 mbar. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 20:52, August 8, 2015 (UTC) :::Category 4 now. Hilda has exploded! leeboy100My Talk! 21:24, August 8, 2015 (UTC) ::::Well... talk about shattering a trend of failing! This reminds me somewhat of how Dean in the Atlantic had only reached hurricane strength once prior to 2007, and then we all know what the 2007 incarnation pulled off. Hopefully Hilda won't be nearly as destructive, but with a little luck, we could have our first CPAC Category 5 since Ioke on the horizon. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:33, August 8, 2015 (UTC) :::::This has peaked probably, but boy it has been a fun run. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:04, August 8, 2015 (UTC) Hilda's eye has been filling up in recent satellite images, this means that Hilda is possibly weakening by the GHWS (Great Hawaiian Wind Shear) the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 02:08, August 9, 2015 (UTC) :It's not shear. If it was, the storm's eye would be cloudy but it wouldn't be nearly as vertically stacked. That is not the case. In fact, wind shear is currently 1 knot per SHIPS output, and is forecast to relax to 0 knots in 6-12 hours and will be less than 5 knots through tomorrow. Then the GHS kicks in. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:20, August 9, 2015 (UTC) :::It probably peaked yesterday, Hilda's now down to 125 mph and will slowly weaken from here on out. 'Ryan1000' 11:25, August 9, 2015 (UTC) ::::Hilda's organization indeed seems to have collapsed recently, and its pressure has been raised to 953 mbar (hPa; 28.15 inHg). Although there is a chance the hurricane could rebound once more in the next day or so because of the low shear YE mentioned above, the CPHC does not call for it, and I also think Hilda should not get any stronger than 115 knots before the GHS kicks in and shreds it into oblivion. Motionwise, Hilda is moving alongside the edge of a ridge to its NE, and is forecast to turn more westwards towards the end of the CPHC forecast period. I don't think Hawaii should see anything significant out of Hilda, but the latest CPHC forecast cone contains the Big Island. AndrewTalk To Me 13:01, August 9, 2015 (UTC) Hurricane Hilda (2nd time) It has gone down to hurricane strength per the CPHC, with 110 mph winds recorded. It was impressive and awesome that it broke the long streak of being a TS, and completely demolishing that streak by becoming a major! :D Nice one, Hilda, you are an epic win and deserve an award! But now that it's down to hurricane strength, the next thing to worry about is that the CPHC's forecast cone takes the storm down to the Big Island of Hawaii, but only as a weakling by then. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 21:00, August 9, 2015 (UTC) :Hilda is my 2nd favorite storm of the year, behind Andres. However, Hilda has continued to degrade on satellite imagery, and its pressure has slightly risen to 964 mbar (hPa; 28.47 inHg). As the hurricane rounds the edge of its steering ridge, it should move more NW due to a lack of steering flow. Moreover, how weak it gets in the next couple of days will make a difference in its motion. If Hilda stays strong, the CPHC notes it may move more northerly due to steering flow. However, if the hurricane rapidly weakens, it may move more ''westerly due to steering flow. Regardless, Hilda should start weakening more rapidly because of the combination of some 40 knots of shear forecasted by SHIPS from the subtropical jet stream and the GHS, and even if it does reach the Big Island, impacts will be minimal. On a side note, I would like to point out how tiny Hilda is - gale-force winds extend just 90 miles from its center! This will make it very susceptible to even minor environmental changes. AndrewTalk To Me 22:32, August 9, 2015 (UTC) ::For me, it's my 3rd favorite in the EPac this year, behind Andres (that powerful early season guy) and Dolores (the one that brought record July rains to help with our drought). Anyways, parts of Hawaii should prepare for potentially heavy rains and flooding. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 01:59, August 10, 2015 (UTC) ::Heeeeey Hilda! Looks like you deserve a big fat hug from your sister Zelda! :D You were ace, girl. rarity is best pony 02:35, August 10, 2015 (UTC) :::Regarding the size, the CPHC has been overestimating it per recon as I suspected, and there are almost no gale force winds on the SW side per recon. Intensity guess per what Recon was sampled so far: 95/970. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 04:45, August 10, 2015 (UTC) ::::Hilda is currently 90 mph as of the latest advisory. The forecast track still takes it down to the Big Island of Hawaii, so they may get some impacts, but probably not too severe. Zelda, give Hilda a big fat hug before she dies! :O --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:08, August 10, 2015 (UTC) ::::::It probably won't reach the islands. Hilda is not very big, it's not moving very fast (only 8 mph to the WNW), and shear will increase to 30-50 knots by tomorrow, which should tear Hilda apart before so much as touching the big island. 'Ryan1000' 02:36, August 11, 2015 (UTC) :::::::I actually think it could still have a chance to touch the islands, but probably only as depression or remnant low. Anyways, it has now weakened to 85 mph. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:02, August 11, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::There's a TS watch up for the big island now, if it makes it there it'll only be a weak TS or depression. If it makes landfall there, it'd be the second year in a row with a Hawaii landfall (3rd if you could Flossie's close brush in 2013), but damage won't be too bad if it does so. 'Ryan1000' 18:31, August 11, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::::I agree. Hurricane Cardozo2 23:50, August 11, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Hilda (2nd time) downgraded to TS... its getting literally trashed by the GHWS. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:35, August 12, 2015 (UTC) :And Hawaii might not get much anymore, either. It just hilariously became a wind shear victim, saving the Hawaiians from impacts (lol). The forecast track is now all south of the Big Island, and they are now unlikely to get anything thanks to the wind shear. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 02:44, August 13, 2015 (UTC) ::Hilda is almost dead now. Current winds are 40 mph, and the pressure is 1005 MB. Bye, Hilda! Luckily it didn't do much to Hawaii. Now we just have to wait for it to die out completely during the next day or so. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:35, August 13, 2015 (UTC) :::...which should be soon. Hilda's LLCC is evidently exposed on satellite imagery, and its forward speed has increased. Surrounded by some 30 knots of shear, the CPHC expects Hilda's demise in about 48 hours, although SHIPS predicts a faster dissipation. As most models predict, the storm should be steered generally westward by steering flow until dissipation, keeping it away from Hawaii. However, the CPHC warns a moisture plume associated with Hilda may still cause heavy flooding and landslides in Hawaii over the next few days, so the islands should not write off the system yet. AndrewTalk To Me 19:29, August 13, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda ...aaaaand that's a wrap. Thank you Hilda for finally becoming a hurricane! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:29, August 14, 2015 (UTC) :Hilda's actually still lingering near 160W and producing shower activity here and now. However, upper-level winds will most likely stop her from coming back together, and her chances of regeneration are '''near 0%' for the next 48 hours. Thank you for your performance, Hilda! AndrewTalk To Me 01:24, August 15, 2015 (UTC) ::And...the environmental conditions have destroyed ex-Hilda. AndrewTalk To Me 14:27, August 15, 2015 (UTC) 93E.INVEST Aoi:ECMWF storm #4 ECMWF hints at something in 8 days. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 01:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC) 93E.INVEST Correct me if this isn't the same storm, but this invest is behind Hilda and at 50% for 5 days. Likely to be Ignacio eventually. 'Ryan1000' 21:05, August 6, 2015 (UTC) :I hope we see this become Ignacio. It's got plenty of potential to do so, currently! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:48, August 7, 2015 (UTC) :::Actually, I may have spoke too soon. It's now down to 20% and is likely to encounter less favorable conditions for development from here on out. 'Ryan1000' 11:25, August 9, 2015 (UTC) ::::Oh... But actually, it still remains similar in organization, and it could still develop in the next couple days before hostile conditions really take over. I think a depression is possible, but unlikely, if it rapidly develops by tomorrow. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 21:11, August 9, 2015 (UTC) :::::Now it's at 10/10, so it won't develop unless it pulls off an extreme surprise. Ignacio will have to wait. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 02:03, August 10, 2015 (UTC) Still 10/10. It'll just get ripped apart by more hostile conditions soon. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:11, August 10, 2015 (UTC) 20/20. organizing very quickly. it can be Ignacio at this pace! -the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 17:30, August 11, 2015 (UTC) : Woah, guess what? It's now up to 50/50. I really think it could become a depression now! See, I had this slight feeling about the invest all this time! Ignacio only has a slight shot at happening though, due to the conditions it's about to enter, but if it does become named, it'll epically fail on the scale of Felicia, or maybe even worse. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:51, August 11, 2015 (UTC) :::And it went poof. Ugh. 10/10. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:48, August 12, 2015 (UTC) ::::"Ugh"? If it would have ever developed, it would have been bound to be an epic fail weakling anyway. The invest remains 10/10, and development just won't happen anymore. I'm actually a bit glad it didn't continue to rapidly develop and steal the name "Ignacio", but I'm also a little disappointed it didn't ever reach the depression stage. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 02:33, August 13, 2015 (UTC) ::This invest has now dropped off the TWO. Nice try, though! The conditions were just preventing this from becoming a depression, and it tried its hardest to fight off the conditions a couple times (like when it upgraded to 50/50 a couple days ago). --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:33, August 13, 2015 (UTC) 11E.NONAME Aoi:GFS storm #3 12z GFS has a storm by day 15, so if this happens, it will be mid-August. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 18:41, July 26, 2015 (UTC) I'm not too sure if this is the same system, but it's near Mexico and has a 10/70 chance in the long run. This could be our potential Jimena, unless the rapidly organizing invest above fails to become named. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:57, August 11, 2015 (UTC) : Yeah, this was the one in the long-run, it's likely to be a strong storm as it heads out to sea, possibly even a major by next week if it gets lucky. 'Ryan1000' 18:31, August 11, 2015 (UTC) :::20/90. Could become Ignacio, though iffy on how strong. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:47, August 12, 2015 (UTC) ::::30/90! We could see Ignacio out of this, you guys! I'm glad that name didn't go to the above weakling. *sigh of relief* I'm thinking a major is possible out of this, due to favorable conditions in the long run. Here comes our next named storm! :) --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 02:40, August 13, 2015 (UTC) I'm expecting a possible C4/C5 out of this if the conditions are good, also note that it mimics last years Marie's track .the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 03:59, August 13, 2015 (UTC) :Don't wanna sound rude, but there's nothing right now that suggests this will become higher than a minimal hurricane honestly, likely due to its broad size. We'll see, but let's not get gungho on Cat 4/5 yet. And why are you guys glad 93E didn't get named? Don't you guys wanna go as far down the list as possible? I never really understood why people think names are wasted if it's used by a weak TS. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:42, August 13, 2015 (UTC) ::YE, there are a few reasons why. First of all, the name that a system wastes could be a precious one that we like and root for it to be used for a powerful system. Second, epic fail TS's are just a waste of time and energy, and it would suck even more to see them steal and hijack names off the lists. Or they just basically...troll us, by stealing the name by strengthening to 40 mph, and immediately weakening afterwards. Finally, I would like to go as far down the list as possible too, but as long as there's not too many weak TS's trolling us by hijacking names off the lists. The 2013 Atlantic season was a horrible case in this matter, with the season basically being filled with weakling TS's. I never want to see a repeat of that, with most names being used for weaklings, so I would prefer if a system receives a name that it doesn't epically fail. Back to the system, it's now 50/90 and looking pretty good. An Ignacio is very likely in the next few days, with a potential shot at major status. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:43, August 13, 2015 (UTC) :::I am not sure why this AOI is not invested yet given the high percentage, but at the same time, it is still rather disorganized. Also, in response to what Steve wrote above - I agree with your first point, as for instance, I was disappointed when Fengshen, the Chinese god of wind, did not become a typhoon last year. As for your second reasoning, I will not disagree, but you should at least be thankful that the name was used. I really could not care less when Ela barely scraped TS intensity, but was excited to see the CPAC heat up so early. Also, I follow your logic behind the last point, but many "awesome" seasons are going to have one "fail" (case and point Fausto from last year). Now, I ''hope Ignacio can become a major as well, but this is dependent on its environment. AndrewTalk To Me 19:40, August 13, 2015 (UTC) 94E.INVEST 80/90. That IMO is a bit to high. Will be lucky if this forms on Saturday, and at best IMO here we're looking at a minimal hurricane. The shear is low and the waters are warm, but none of the guidance has a grip on this as been the case for most of the storms the past year and a half, so I really don't know what to expect, but I'm thinking a strong TS/weak hurricane. As for the naming wasting, names aren't as precious as made out to be on here. Sure, if it's name I like (like Guillermo) I want it be strong, but IMO it's not enough for me to not root for it to become named. I'd rather finish 16/8/5 than 10/8/5. What made 2013 AHS wasn't necessarily all the weaklings, it was the overall lack of strong storms. I don't mind a few weaklings as long as if there are 4-5 powerful systems. But that's just me. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 18:18, August 14, 2015 (UTC) :94E seems better organized than yesterday, but it evidently lacks a central convection on satellite imagery. YE, the NHC does expect the invest to become a TD Saturday or Sunday, and says conditions are favorable for further development. Intensitywise, I'm thinking something along the lines of Cosme '13, which became a Category 1, only to quickly weaken afterwards due to its large size (which seems a similar case with 94E). Any other predictions? AndrewTalk To Me 01:21, August 15, 2015 (UTC) ::94E isn't organizing. There is no sign of an LLC whatsoever, and the wind of this thing are likely 10-15 knts. The upper level envirment is very favorable for now, yes, but I think the NHC (and I don't say this too often) may be too bullish here. I'm expecting a mid-grade TS if that as the system will be move quickly WNW, and SST's start to drop off north of 20N, and the GFS has a lot of dry air affecting what should be an inner core-less tropical cyclone in 2 days. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 07:03, August 15, 2015 (UTC) :::Most of 94E's organization remains confined from the center, and it looks like it may never get the first advisory if it does not come together quick enough. The NHC also is now stating that conditions will get less favorable after Monday, so the window is indeed fading. Regardless, chances of formation for 94E in the next 48 hours have been upgraded to '''90%'. AndrewTalk To Me 14:39, August 15, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eleven-E It's here, but not forecast to become much. Earlier on, I thought it could've had a chance to become something big, but it's too broad and elongated to be able to intensify fast. Well, at least Ignacio will probably be coming from this. Ryan1000 02:49, August 16, 2015 (UTC) :At least it developed. However, its large size has really gone against it - most of its convection is stretched out, and I can't even make out a center on satellite imagery. Thanks to an ASCAT pass - winds are still 30 knots (35 mph), with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). As a low pressure system and STR over the SW United States steer Eleven-E more NW, its large size will actually help perserve the depression for another day before degenerating, as the NHC forecasts. So much for a tropical storm! AndrewTalk To Me 14:09, August 17, 2015 (UTC) :what the heck is this? looks more like a WPac JMA depression than your typical EPac TD. -the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 16:31, August 17, 2015 (UTC) ::This system is just a pathetic little fail I'm looking at. It's down to 30 mph, and should degenerate into a remnant low overnight. I am really glad that 11-E didn't become named, then otherwise, it would've been one of the most extreme fails known to man. Remember when we were thinking this system would turn into a potential major. Nope, didn't happen. Not even close. I'd be extremely shocked if this little depression jumped up 10 mph and hijacked a lovely, unique, likeable, awesome, etc. name from the EPac lists before it dies. But that has like a very low chance of happening, thank god. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 03:10, August 18, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E After being of deep convection for a lot of time, Eleven-E has degenerated into a remnant low. Ignacio will have to wait. AndrewTalk To Me 12:51, August 18, 2015 (UTC) : Glad it didn't become named. If it did, we would be laughing at how much of a name waste that was. Looks like Ignacio should be saved for something hopefully worth tracking! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 20:30, August 18, 2015 (UTC) Aoi:Middle of Nowhere Aoi:Middle of Nowhere I don't know if this is really worth mentioning, but the CPHC is tracking a 0/0 AOI west of Hilda associated with a weak surface trough and a weak upper low. I think this honestly won't develop! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:08, August 11, 2015 (UTC) I love the title lol. it can slowly develop though. if the circulation of Hilda gets absorbed into it. i'd expect to be quickly named. c'mon we need a 4th named CPac storm! the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 02:24, August 12, 2015 (UTC) : I don't think this will get named. It's still near 0% and development is just...extremely unlikely due to unfavorable conditions. There's a possibility the circulation of Hilda could get absorbed, but it'll have to survive the conditions first. And about the title: It was literally in a place I couldn't really think of a title, so I just put that. :D I could have went with "near Hawaii", but that's not really specific enough. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 02:37, August 13, 2015 (UTC) : Off the TWO. It didn't really do much other than existing. Honestly, this wasn't even worth tracking, since unfavorable conditions just ripped it apart as expected. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:46, August 13, 2015 (UTC) 03C.KILO AOI: SE of Hilo A new low pressure area has sprung up near the CPAC/EPAC boundary. Shower activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions might prompt some development over the next couple days. Currently, the CPHC gives the AOI a 10% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 14:12, August 17, 2015 (UTC) well at least we are possibly getting Kilo from this. -the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 16:32, August 17, 2015 (UTC) : 50% shot of developing in the next 48 hours. :) I hope Kilo is worth it. This needs to be something good, and I would appreciate it if it doesn't fail and achieves hurricane strength! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 03:14, August 18, 2015 (UTC) : 93C.INVEST invest'd. has some developing banding. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 16:32, August 18, 2015 (UTC) : Still 50%, and Kilo should come out of this during the next couple of days. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 20:31, August 18, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three-C uh oh... possible major and 92' Iniki repeat here. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 19:06, August 20, 2015 (UTC) : That would be scary. If this system does approach Hawaii, let's hope it doesn't get so powerful when it strikes. Iniki was just very devastating for them, and I don't want the same to happen with this system. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 19:43, August 20, 2015 (UTC) ::: Kilo to-be probably won't become a terrifyingly strong category 4 like Iniki was, but a cat 2, as currently forecasted, or minimal cat 3 landfall over Kauai is still a potentially dangerous scenario. This one definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 21:08, August 20, 2015 (UTC) ::::My take is that there is good agreement that this will pass close to Hawaii as a strong hurricane, but it's uncertain on how close this comes. We still don't have a fully consolidated center yet. Right now, I'd follow the mutli-model consensus TVCE. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:56, August 21, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kilo ...and we tied 1982's record! the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:52, August 21, 2015 (UTC) 04C.FOUR 94C.INVEST 10% for now. euro shows Wene-like system. should become Loke or Etau. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 19:06, August 20, 2015 (UTC) :CPHC needs to man up and call this a TD. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:57, August 21, 2015 (UTC) ::maybe the CPHC did hear you and it's upped to 60%. Loke is in the way! the destructive Hurricane Odile • • Tropical Depression Four-C Upped. Likely a minimal TS coming. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:45, August 21, 2015 (UTC) :its moving very slowly to the north. so it has a lot of chances of becoming Loke. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 16:02, August 21, 2015 (UTC) Aoi: Middle of Nowhere (2) Aoi: Middle of Nowhere (2) 0% now. should become Malia the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 19:06, August 20, 2015 (UTC) :10%. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 16:02, August 21, 2015 (UTC) 95E.INVEST Aoi:ECMWF system #1 10/50. Could be a weak TS near 135W. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:01, August 21, 2015 (UTC) 95E.INVEST invest'd. 16:02, August 21, 2015 (UTC) Aoi:ECMWF system #2 Aoi:ECMF system #2 0/20. GFS and ECMWf make this powerful. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:01, August 21, 2015 (UTC) Aoi:GFS/CMC system Aoi:GFS/CMC system GFS shows another system around the very end of the month. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:01, August 21, 2015 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado... ;EPAC *Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise. *Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager. *Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement. *Dolores: 0% - It became respectably strong, but if there were any impacts, they were negligible. *Enrique: Fail% - Él es el perdedor. *Felicia: https://youtu.be/PxDW8h9kMXs% - Gets an F-. ;CPAC *Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry) *Halola: Currently active *Iune: -4% - It failed miserably. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC) The Steve has spoken: (Retirement colors: '''0%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%' (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) EPac: *Andres: 0% - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise. *Blanca: 2.5% - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there. *Carlos: 5% - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country. *Dolores: 0% - It did a nice job at the major part, but impacts, if any, were meager. Baja and SoCal shouldn't get much either. *Enrique: 0% - See you in 2021! *Felicia: 0% - Actually, it deserves lower than an F-. It gets a Z. Yeah, that's right, a Z! What an extreme epic fail that deserves a place in the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing! *Guillermo: 0% - Other than Hawaiian surf, this didn't cause much impacts other than spinning fish out in the middle of the Pacific ocean. *Hilda: 0% - Hawaii never got much from her. CPac: *Ela: 0% - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin. *Halola: 0% - Also failed to affect land. *Iune: 0% - Never in a million years. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Welp, here I go: ---- Andres: 0% - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh. Blanca: 3% - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet... Carlos: 27% - This one has a higher chance at retirement, Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for another "Category 5 hype". Killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. #CarlosPLZ Dolores: 0.0001% - FAIL... I'm sorry Dolores, Andres is way better looking than you Enrique: <1% - Wait, wot? Sadly I would've expected a major from a storm named after my middle name. FAILecia: Fail% - 0 Chances is enough for a name with FAIL in it. Gullimero - <2% - these storms keep getting more fail-prone every time. Can't wait to see how much of a FAIL Hilda will be (despite that being my sister's name) ---- CPac Names Don't really see any retirements yet, until Hawaii's smallest island disappears from storm surge. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 16:03, July 18, 2015 (UTC) ---- odile's fun retirement chances with memes ayy lmao its my turn! Andres: -50% - meh. Blanca: -25% - as puffle says above. Carlos: carlos plz% 25% - CARLOS PLZ! AIN'T NOBODY HAS TIME FO' THAT! still. carlos plz. can get a tiny shot at retirement because of the 17 million pesos on luxury yacht damage Dolores: 15% - caused a lot of flood damage in the San Diego-Tijuana area. Enrique: NaN% - HAHAHAHAHA will be suprised if it gets retired. just sayin' Failelicia: ��% - poop emoji here Guillermo: NaN% - fun to see an hurricane after fails. Hilda: NaN% - OH NO! ---- cpac Ela: NaN% - WORST. STORM. EVER. Halola: 1.5% - well it was a nearly record-breaking storm. i'll stay here. Iune: NaN% - wat the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 18:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC) ---- Now it is time for my predictions: #Andres - 1% - Andres was a true early surprise, and kudos to it for becoming the westernmost May major. While its remnant moisture did bring unseasonable rainfall to Phoenix and cause some power outages in Colorado, these have not been described as extreme. Therefore, I believe Andres will stay. #Blanca - 2% - I am impressed that Blanca was able to become the earliest 2nd EPAC hurricane in general and reach the intensity it did. Its remnants brought some wave action to Puerto Vallarta and caused quite a few power outages. However, most of these were fixed within a day. Also, while SoCal did see some flooding from ex-Blanca, most of the rainfall was beneficial for the infamous drought there. Consequently, Blanca should stay as well. #Carlos - 6% - Carlos was a little worse than either Andres or Blanca. It downed some trees and billboards around Acapulco. In addition, it sank the Bellísima luxury yacht and killed someone from falling metal. Nevertheless, most of the flooding was not widespread, and there do not seem to be extreme destruction reports from Carlos. As a result, the $1.1 million (2015 USD) price tag should not be enough for retirement. #Ela - 0% - It was cool to see the CPAC come alive in the middle of July. But Ela did zilch to land, so you know the drill. #Halola - TBA - Still Active #Iune - 0% - Aside from being the earliest 3rd named CPAC storm, what did Iune do? #Dolores - 1% - Like Andres, it was amazing to see Dolores unexpectedly become a Category 4 so quickly. Most of its impacts so far have been from its associated moisture and not the storm itself. Sure, SoCal saw some incredible rainfall (namely LA and San Diego!) from this that was "historic", but most of the precipitation will be beneficial for the area. As a matter of fact, a persistent wildfire in Cajon Pass was exhausted because of ex-Dolores's moisture. So, Dolores, you are staying put, too. #Enrique - 0% - Enrique did surprise me with his persistence against his environment, and even became a tropical storm for a second time. But while Iglesias may have stolen Frank (1992)'s 8th storm ribbon, he did not harm land in the process. AndrewTalk To Me 00:05, July 22, 2015 (UTC) Ryan Grand is back: EPac: *Andres - 0% - Became pretty strong for such an early-season storm, but it caused no direct damage on land, so it won't be retired. *Blanca - 3% - Earliest 2nd (major) hurricane of any EPac season on record, and also the earliest Baja California landfall as well, but overall damage wasn't too severe; if anything the rainfall from it's remnants helped ease up California's drought a little. *Carlos - 5% - Slightly worse than Blanca, and Mexico was fortunate Carlos didn't get past category 1 strength as it neared the coastline, but this was no Manuel. It was modest at most, and will be coming back again in 2021. *Dolores - 0% - Slightly weaker than Andres, and als a bit farther east, but overall impacts from surf were minor at most. *Enrique - 0% - Fail, but at least he didn't fail as bad as Failicia. *Failicia - Pun% - << See the name. *Guillermo - 0% - Steered well clear of Hawaii, with no known damage or deaths. *Hilda - 0% - Did nothing notable to Hawaii, but it was still nice to see it become the first hurricane hilda ever. CPac: *Ela - 0% - Nice early start for the CPac, but nothing to speak of regarding impacts. *Halola - 2% - Caused 1.2 million in crop damage to southern Japan with no deaths. It was a modest storm at most, and it likely won't be retired. *Iune - 0% - See Ela. There you go. Ryan1000 20:39, July 25, 2015 (UTC)